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Potential Geomagnetic Storm Warning

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POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING

ISSUED: 09:30 UTC, 22 JANUARY 2004

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(See Appended Comments for Synoptic Information)

VALID BEGINNING AT: 21:00 UTC 21 JAN
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC 23 JAN

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 22 JAN (UTC days)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 22 - 23 JAN

PREDICTED ESTIMATED IMPACT TIMES (+/- SEVERAL HOURS): 03:00 UTC ON 22
JAN

POTENTIAL LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY: MINOR - MAJOR
POTENTIAL HIGH LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY: MINOR - MAJOR

POTENTIAL DURATION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM: APPROX 24 TO 36 HOURS
DURATION OF MAIN BELT OF ACTIVITY: 18 TO 24 HOURS

POTENTIAL PEAK LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES: 6
POTENTIAL PEAK HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES: 7

EXPECTED DOMINATING LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX: 4 - 5
EXPECTED DOMINATING HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX: 5

POTENTIAL FOR LOW LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: LOW
POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: MINOR
EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: GOOD TO FAIR

POTENTIAL FOR MIDDLE LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: MODERATE
POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: MINOR
EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: FAIR

POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: HIGH
POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: MINOR TO MAJOR
EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: FAIR TO VERY POOR

POTENTIAL RISK FOR GEOSYNCHRONOUS MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS: 50%



EST. POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC IMPACT EST. POTENTIAL IONOSPHERIC
IMPACT

SEVERE STORM : 15 % LOW LATITUDES : MINOR
MAJOR STORM : 30 % MIDDLE LATITUDES : MINOR
MINOR STORM : 40 % HIGH LATITUDES : MINOR -
MAJOR
ACTIVE OR LESS : 15 % POLAR LATITUDES : MINOR -
MAJOR

PROBABLE SI ASSOCIATION : 80% ESTIMATED GLOBAL IMPACT: MINOR -
MAJOR

ESTIMATED FORECAST PEAK PLANETARY 24-HOUR A-INDEX DURING STORM: 35
----

COMMENTS:

Multiple solar events in and near Region 540 have resulted in a
well-defined Earthward-directed coronal mass ejection on 20 January.
Impact
of this disturbance should be strong enough to generate periods of
minor to
major geomagnetic storm activity, with a slight chance for isolated
periods
of severe storming - particularly over the higher latitudes. Activity
should
decline toward less active levels later on 23 January.


** End of Warning **

So keep an eye out if the skies are clear!
Paul Tipper,
South Dublin Astro. Soc.
19 years 2 months ago #1971

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Replied by Paul Tipper on topic Re: Potential Geomagnetic Storm Warning

Also:

=================================================================
This Is SKY & TELESCOPE's AstroAlert for Sun-Earth Interactions
=================================================================

A s t r o A l e r t
Sun-Earth Alert

Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com

21 January 2004

COMPLEX SERIES OF SOLAR EVENTS MAY PRODUCE AURORAL DISPLAYS

A complex series of solar events on 19 and 20 January has
resulted in a well-defined Earthward-directed coronal mass ejection
(CME). The events involved filament eruptions as well as a major solar
flare (a fairly minimal major x-ray class M6.1 flare) in sunspot
complex 10540 on 20 January.

Confidence is high that this coronal mass ejection will impact
the Earth. Low and moderately energetic protons at greater than 5 MeV
have already increased in response to the effects of the associated
leading shock front from the CME. Impact is expected to occur during
the early portion of the UTC day of 22 January (evening/night hours
over North America).

A middle latitude aurora watch has been issued for 22 and 23
January. If the disturbance arrives as predicted, North America should
be best positioned to observe much of the activity. The watch
statement has been appended below.

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 09:30 UTC, 21 JANUARY 2004

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VALID BEGINNING AT: 21:00 UTC (4 pm EST) ON 21 JANUARY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 23 JANUARY

PREDICTED IMPACT TIME OF DISTURBANCE: 03:00 UTC ON 22 JAN, +/- SEVERAL
HOURS

HIGH RISK PERIOD: LATE 21 - 22 JANUARY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 22 - 23 JANUARY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 15, 35, 20, 15 (21 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 18 TO 36 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO
GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE
FROM...

SOUTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO
NORTHERN IOWA TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO NORTHERN INDIANA TO OHIO TO
PENNSYLVANIA TO NEW JERSEY.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

IRELAND TO ENGLAND TO NORTHERN BELGIUM TO NORTHERN GERMANY TO
NORTHERN POLAND TO LITHUANIA TO SOUTHERN LATVIA TO NORTH-CENTRAL
RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND TO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA.


SYNOPSIS...

A well-defined Earthward-directed coronal mass ejection is
enroute to the Earth. Impact of this disturbance is expected to occur
during the early UTC hours of 22 January (our target time is estimated
near 03:00 UTC, give or take several hours). NOTE that this correponds
(for North American observers) to the evening hours of 21 January
(Wednesday night). Auroral activity could intensify to moderately
strong levels following the arrival of the disturbance and may provide
sporadic opportunities to observe auroral activity over fairly
wide-spread middle latitude regions. The near-new phase of the moon
will help ensure optimally dark skies for all regions.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on 23
January. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For
real-time plots of current activity, visit:
www.spacew.com/plots.html or www.sec.noaa.gov.

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


** End of the AstroAlert Bulletin **

Paul Tipper,
South Dublin Astro. Soc.
19 years 2 months ago #1972

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