Active sunspot 1121 has unleashed one of the brightest x-ray solar flares in years, an M5.4-class eruption on Nov. 6th and NOAA forecasters estimate a 20% chance of X-class flares from sunspot 1121 during the next 24 hours.
Radiation from the flare created a wave of ionization in Earth's upper atmosphere that altered the propagation of low-frequency radio waves. There was, however, no bright CME (plasma cloud) hurled in our direction, so the event is unlikely to produce auroras in the nights ahead. This is the third M-flare in as many days from this increasingly active sunspot. So far none of the eruptions has been squarely Earth-directed, but this could change in the days ahead as the sun's rotation turns the active region toward our planet.
This must be the first time in 4-5 years that there has been a forecast for this type of flare and with clear dark night ahead..Any Aurora would be very inviting. NOAA are also forecasting an 85% chance of further M class flares.
Ronan Newman
www.galwayastronomyclub.ie
  