The Weather for the 09 Eclipse

Hi,

The weather forecast (at the moment) for Shanghai-Hangzhou is fairly good for the early part of next week, but getting bad by Eclipse Day, Wednesday 22nd July. Thunderstorms are possible, but maybe the early time of the eclipse will help. I still hope for 8/8! - any way I will still experience the eclipse (if only with Plan B ).

Best of luck to all those both on land and at sea. Regardless of the weather enjoy the holiday to an exotic land,

John

Isnt it a tiny bit too early to be speculating on the weather, maybe 3 or so days before but like in Novosibirsk, you wont know for sure until it happens.
Back in '99, I was clouded out on my first eclipse, during totality the clouds visible decended and it got very dark, the birds all started singing and the street lights came on, at least that was something. Hopefully you'll all fair better in China.

True, maybe it is a little early but I was just curious as to the
current weather patterns there...

As you say Dave, you just wont know until you get there
and even on the day, anything can happen.

I have to say, as you mention 1999, I was really glad to have
been on a fast ship with a determined captain that day!

Novo was always 50/50...
very stomach turning odds now when I think of it!

But,
as Martin Mobberley says in his Eclipse book.
'Now when I think of Eclipse I also think of the word Desert'
I have to agree.
But of course it' all down to logistics and money in the end.

Hi,

Frank et al, you asked for any weather patterns.

I have monitored the weather in Shanghai area daily for the past three weeks or so. Usually south China is cloudy with north China much clearer. Remarkedly Shanghai is near this north/side divide. In the last few days there has been a tendency for this to flip, the south has lots of clear areas apart from the thunderstorms. Another feature is a west-east fairly narrow band (usually but not always slightly north of Shanghai).

It goes without saying there is a lot of uncertainty in long range forecasts. Every day nearer next Wednesday we will be able to get a better handle on the weather.

I don't want to sound pessimistic, but there is no denying East China is a humid sub-tropical summer climate. Still prospects are as good as 50/50. Remember this is from a single location. If you can be mobile (even only 100 or 200km) and get the forecast the night before, this can significiantly increase the odds. You need to be able to interpret the weather movements correctly.

For those at sea, if a suitable location can be picked, the odds dramatically improve.

I don't know how mobile groups in China will be allowed to be. I would guess the Authories would not allow unlimited travel. Just think of millions of people jamming up the roads. Has anybody heard what the official Government Policy?

All in all millions of people in China will see this eclipse!

John

Gentlemen,

As of this moment, it does not look very good for either Shanghai or Hangzhou. Of course, last year in Novosibirsk we had the same situation with the skies clearing beautifully an hour before first contact and remaining clear for the duration of the eclipse.

Let's see how things go next week.

By the way, Dan got through customs etc hassle-free this year as per his message on the SEML list.

Anthony.

ayiomamitis wrote:

By the way, Dan got through customs etc hassle-free this year

Go Dan, the eclipse man!
:laugh:

So guys....
it's getting ever nearer...
:woohoo:

Feck the weather God's!
Have a fantastic trip!!!!!
Vacation of a lifetime anyway!