'Are UFOs Real?'

I agree jhonan with your four possibilities of ETI senarios. However, I think when you bring into the equation past assessment of UFO behaviour this may reach an inferrence of an ET strategy.

If one allows that at least some unexplanable UFO sightings may be manifestations of extraterrestrial intelligence, then there is yet another reason for reevaluation.

A growing recognition over the past 2 decades that a large part of the behaviour manifested can be viewed as being quite rational. The topic of ET behaviour has received considerable discussion in connection with SETI in the past 3 decades. SETI has proceeded on the assumption that Ferm's paradox is to be solved through continued and enhanced searching of the sky for electromagnetic signal indicative of ET communications. Recent times there have been several reasons for lack of success.proposed.

Since the 1970s advocates of a covert ET presence in our vicinity have also been advancing their hypotheses or senarios. they reject as improbable the assuption that space faring ETs must be dominated by the most evil and aggressive of their kind, an assumption whose consequence would be that we should not be existing as a freely developing civilization within a fully colonised or explored galaxy.

Contact optimists instead presume that many advanced ET groups are at least as ethical as we are, while still attending to their own safety and security. The ET motivation for space travel could be to increase their knowledge through exploration of space rather than to colonise and seek domination, as you quite rightly pointed out as to other possible senarios.

Their are other hypotheses why such why such ETs would be aware of our presence but not yet have contacted us overtly:

Among these are 'The Zoo', 'Nursery' and 'Quarantine' or 'Embargo' hypotheses. ie. most of these underline that the ETs involved have frequently scouted us out semi-covertly and have concluded that we are either not yet mature enough for open contact, or not prepared for it, since any abrupt, overt contact could cause societal chaos and governmental downfalls. Also postulated is that ET interference with our society would prematurely bring an end to our civilisation's continued development if it occurred before our knowledge has progressed to the point that we could undrstand where the aliens could have originated and how great their head start over us could be.

A serious inconsistency in this reasoning, however, is that maintenance of total ET covertness towards Earth and the solar system would still lead to societal chaos whenever the covertness or embargo was eventually lifted, unless the ETs carried out a programme of gradual disclosure - a 'leaky' embargo. Although the zoo or embargo hypothesis may be unverifiable, the leaky-embargo hypothesis may be verifiable if the UFO evidence is taken into account. Much of this evidence appears to constitute just such a leak in the embargo. ie a grass roots educational programme in the form of the phenomenon, which has been in operation since 1947, if not before.

Many sightings have been of a nature to attract attention to their craft and let isolated groups of witnesses know that its occupants are aware of us. A key category of such cases involves reports wherein persons within a travelling vehicle frantically witness an object pacing them even though their car or aircraft makes turns that rule out the sighting of an astronomical or ordinary object as an explanation. Similarly, in a number of aircraft cases the unknown object, which was either pacing the aircraft or preventing itself to it, was detected on radar as well as visually. The object's extraordinary appearance, manoevrebility and oftimes coincidental interference with the vehicle's electrical system additionally rule out mundane explanations.

Although individual, localised and usually brief sightings may have provided sufficient evidence to be convincing to the observers and sighting analysts, the fact is that, since the widely reported sightings began in 1947, no event has persisted in a prominent place a sufficient number of hours at a time, or demonstrated its abilities to enough witnesses at a time, for the news media to congregate and publicise it to the world. Nor have they left quite enough evidence behind to be totally convincing to very many scientists. One could suspect that this chary behaviour may be no accident.

To put it another way, from the viewpoint of investigators studying such phenomena, individual close encounter and other sightings can be very intrusive and covert. However, from the viewpoint of the scientific community and society as a whole, this is not the case, because of the relative rarity in time and space of convincing sightings and because of the limited numbers of witnesses in most instances. The inference is that, by not providing sufficient evidence to make their reality totally obvious to scientists and society in general, the ETs are following a strategy or programme that avoids inflicting catastrophic shock to society as a whole, which any overt contact could cause, while preparing us for evantual open contact. This could say something about their level of ethics.

Proposing a certain level of ET ethics is not new; it was suggested that advanced ETs may abide by a Codex Galactica that would require them to treat emerging civilisations delicately. Such a standard of behaviour is consistent with reality of the UFO phenomenon and the fact that not in the past 57 years, nor in past millennia, have we been colonised, conquered or exterminated, nor has society been traumatised by any ETs or by their sometimes postulated robotic probes. It is also consistent with the failure of investigative panels to find that UFOs constitute any direct threat to national security. On the other hand, it appears all to evident that ETs have not intervened in world affairs in any benevolent manner that would have forestalled human warefare, famine and disease. If fact, ample cases exist wherein the witnesses, when to close, were injured or harmed. Other cases exist, however, inwhich a witness was healed of some injury or medical condition.

All this suggests that ET interactions with humans are based on a neutrally benevolent ethical level overall.

Eamonn A

Eamonn, John
Its not often I have the patience to read long posts, but I find these fascinating. Its good to see rational thought put into this.

So, it seems like if they are there, they are not interactive for our benifit.
You mention that they will decide (again, if they are watching) to make contact when we're ready, do you think it is possible to figure out when this can happen, what event would trigger this? or am I asking the impossible?

Here's an interesting sideline for you guys. When my mother was younger and living in Rathfarnham (this was considered in the country back then) she was with a friend when they heard a buzzing noise in a field. The two of them went to the gate and froze when they saw a large silver bell shaped object with beams of lights all over it, making the most peculiar, loud noise. They didn't hang around to investigate further, they legged it! Mum has absoloutely no interest in science or science fiction, but to this day she can draw the object with a great amount of detail. Personally, I don't know what to make of it.

Who knows?

Dave, not an easy quick answer for you. Assuming we take the senario of ET strategy which incorporates behavoiur of the UFO phenonmenon as previously outlined, then we can follow with a global assessment of the situation at presently known from data and statistics accumulated over the last 57 years from over 200 countries.

Before we can entertain the concept for open contact and when it will happen between humans and other intelligent life forms, we must ask ourselves some basic questions:

1. What global developments must occur before full open contact can take place?
2. How will communication occur, and what should be communicated?
3. Prior to full, open contact, what form of contact and communication is possible, in a pioneering or preliminary framework?
4. And most importantly, what are the fundamental points of unity between humans and other intelligent life forms in the universe?
What is our universal common ground?
Regarding the last question, we cannot assume that ET life forms who are thinking, sentient beings, and who by definition have evolved under conditions different from those on Earth, are likely to be much like humans, at least superficially. Their level of intelligence, fund of knowledge, emotional nature, social and political structures, ethical, moral and religious systems and more are likely to be quite different from that of humans. We must therefore find a deeper point of unity, ie. highest common denominator.

This consideration, however abstract it may seem to some, is really central to establishing a sense of common ground between intelligent species. And without common ground, we can have no relationship.

Question of Intent:

While not minimising the strange and startling aspects of the UFO phenomenon which some humans have experienced, one can follow on with an assessment of these visitors motives and ultimate intentions is that they are decidedly non hostile. It appears during the 57 year duration of the phenomenon that their operations and activities centre around:

A. General reconnaissance of Earth and her societies
B. Military (especially nuclear) observations and assessment.
C. Human social and psychological study and observations
D. Observation and assessment of human mental and spiritual development.
E. Earth ecology research and documentation, including documentation of Earth life systems, and mineral, plant and animal specimens.
F. Observation of human technology and technological developments.
G. Observation, active monitoring and , if necessary, limitation of human space programmes, particularly those directed towards the nationalistic colonisation of space.
H. Careful interaction with humans to convey certain information about themselves and to accustom humans to their presence.

An assessment of these activities can be derived from several ultimate motives which include:

1. Pure study and research of a rapidly developing intelligent species (humans) during a time of transition to a world community.
2. A needed increase in ETI knowledge of world societies and human nature preparatory to future significant interaction, which will be mutual in nature, and which will eventually culminate in the introduction of Earth civilisation into an interplanetary network (this would require several centuries to complete)
3. Preparatory activities for continued readiness in the event that intervention is required during a major world emergency, such as a large scale nuclear war. Such interventions would be in the form of:
a). interception and destruction of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs)
b). alteration of missile coordinates and readiness, and c). emergency Earth based activities when and where warranted.

The minimum intervention necessary would be used, with the intention being the preservation of Earth as an inhabitable planet with adequate human resorces remaining to sustain intelligent life here.

4. Emergency intervention in the event of an enviromental or geological catastrophe of worldwide dimensions.
5. Preservation of Earth species, including human genetic preservation, as a precaution in the event of a worse case senario (see above).
6. Protection of space from hostile or military utilisation by human national interests.
7. ETI self protective interests, insofar as humans have a strong recent history of coupling marked aggressiveness with rapidly technological development; in this setting, monitoring and perhaps even limiting human capabilities may be important to ETI security - human evolution to world peace, non aggression and world government would remove this motive as well as several of the motives listed above.
8. ETI short - and long term goals related to the atainment of a significant human paradigm shift from one of fragmentation/separation to one of unity, to include the unity of science and religion, world political and eventual spiritual unity, and universal unity. This paradigm shift is dependent on the development of human consciousness, which I suspect would be of interset to ETI; and
9. the preservation and advancement of intelligent life in the universe.

Conclusion:

If we are wrong about this phenonmenon at present, and all the existing evidence points to some other phenonmenon, then the attempt to contact whatever that phenomenon is may prove extremely enlightening. But if we are correct in this assessment, and we are being visited by advanced ET civilisations, then the risks of doing nothing are immense, and the benefits of acting wisely could be dramatic.

Eamonn A

Eamonn, John
Its not often I have the patience to read long posts, but I find these fascinating. Its good to see rational thought put into this.

I concur with you Dave. normally I very quickly skip past a long post, but these have me rivetted :shock:
just maybe, if more rational discussion was put forward in this fashion, then we might see more people come forward who have had an "experience". this may then have the knock-on effect of furthering this sort of investigation. I would think that there are many intelligent people out there who have had something "strange" happen to them, and I don't nescessarily mean abduction and probed etc. I for one have experienced the strange, but I would never come forward and speak of it due to the fact that I would (fear) be dismissed as a mad crank. I bet there are thousands just like me. A pity really, because with more information it would only assist in proving or disproving the theory of visitation by ET.
Bill H.

Bill,
If I witness something remarkable relating to this, I'd have it up on this site in a flash. If I'm going to be rediculed, then so be it. Having said that, I havent seen anything.

Eamonn,
You hypothesise that these ETI might actually prevent a nuclear war, ironic since most ETIs in films past put them in the place of world destroyers, except for the ET film back in the 80s..

Aliens or no aliens, I can imagine that we'll end up with some sort of world government in the distant future, just like they were state cities in the middle ages, the state boddies have become bigger with time.

I would imagine that that the more seriously religious would have the biggest problem with ETIs landing in our back garden. I'm no religious philosopher, but how would someone who literally believes in the 7 day creation story fit the extra terrestrials in? and would they have souls etc?, I suspect that these questions would cause the most problems which might trigger abit of a backlash?!?
I'm not a religion basher, I'm just giving another hypothetical angle.

dpower, it would be interesting to see a drawing of that.